MINNESOTA (13-4) @ NEW ORLEANS (14-3)


ATS Records: Minnesota (10-6-1) @ New Orleans (9-8)

Sunday, Jan 24 2010 at 6:40 PM

Current Line: New Orleans -4 O/U: 52.5

So which team were you more impressed with in last week's victories. The Vikings embarrassed the listless Cowboys while the Saints took advantage of a very tired Cardinals team. Keep this in mind--- The Cowboys were coming off back-to-back division games vs. the Eagles and Arizona played an up and down game that had to take some energy out of the team. The NFC Championship showdown features two dome teams and two franchises that have never won a Super Bowl. We get to watch two elite Quarterbacks in this game and that's always fun. Let's break down the match-up.

Random Thoughts

The Vikings have not committed a turnover in two straight games. There is a 75%chance they will commit at least 1 turnover in this game.

One glaring difference between these two teams is Rushing Defense. The Vikings only allow 87.4 ypg while the Saints allow 121 ypg. The Saints allow 109 ypg when playing at home.

Dome teams are 4-1 all-time in conference championship games played on their home turf. The Vikings were the only casualty of that scenario when they lost to Atlanta, 30-27, as 10.5-point favorites in 1998.

If you put these two teams on a neutral field the line would be closer to a Pick em. The line you see basically represents the home field advantage for New Orleans.

Better Offense

The Saints average 404 yards per game while scoring 32.6 points. The Vikings are not far behind averaging 376 yards per game good for 29.6 points.

Better Defense

The Vikings allow 302 yards per game while holding their opponent to 18.5 ppg. The Saints allow 357 yards per game while holding their opponent to 21 ppg. Clearly, the Vikings have the better stop unit.

Better Special Teams

The Saints still have the #1 ST unit in all football. But, the Vikings are ranked #2. This formula of mine calculates kicking, punting, field position, takeaways, giveaways, tackling, and technique. I crunch all the numbers in my database and than spits out the rankings.

Better Coaching Staff

Slight edge to Minnesota just based on total years experience.

Intangibles

New Orleans by playing in a very loud dome in the NFC Championship game.

Meaningless Trends

Minnesota is 31-19 straight-up in all games over the last three seasons.

Minnesota has defeated New Orleans in 6 of the previous 7 match-ups.

The Saints are 26-9 straight-up when installed as a favorite over the last three seasons.

JEFF H
 

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