Miami covered both games against New England last season with both of them going under the total. Both offenses are improved though this season. Tom Brady has a full year to recover from his knee injury, as well as a healthy Wes Welker. Miami’s Chad Henne has more experience, and now he has a premiere wide receiver in Brandon Marshall. The Dolphins also added Mike Nolan, one of the best defensive minds in football, as their defensive coordinator. Overall, I think Miami improved more than New England from last season.

New England’s defense has been horrible this season, giving up 27 points per game this season and an average of 380 yards per game. What is most remarkable is that they gave up 30 points to a horrible Buffalo offense last week. Miami will likely try to pound the ball and control the clock win their running attack. The Dolphins do not want to get into a shootout with Brady, so they will try and shorten the game with long drives.

The Dolphins defense has been gashed the last two weeks on the ground, giving up over 140 yards to both the Jets and the Vikings. They also allowed Mark Sanchez to look very good as well last week. I expect the Patriots offense to have a great deal of success, as they have a much better offense than New York. There is no reason why they will be able to shutdown New England if they had a hard time slowing down New York last week. However, the total is too high here for me to recommend a wager on it.

Here are some options that I recommend for tonight. These are just leans though. I recommend teasing the OVER 41/42 with New England +7, or the UNDER 54/55 with Miami +7. I feel that if Miami covers, it will be with a slightly lower scoring game, while I feel that if New England covers a teaser it would be because of a higher scoring game. I think the best selections in the game are two prop bets. They are RONNIE BROWN OVER 62.5 YARDS and UNDER 4 SACKS TOTAL FOR BOTH TEAMS COMBINED. I have a very slight lean to Miami -110 or +1 for the game, but that is just a very slight lean.

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