In this piece we will look at a Last Home game system in the NBA and see if we can capitalize on some weak lines with some motivated teams who want to give their fans a big thank you for coming out, with one last big effort.

What we will look to do here is a touch on a solid system that goes all the way back 20 years to 1990, in search of a solid system that can help us beat the spread in these games which many think are meaningless. Most teams who are not making the playoffs and who are perceived to have thrown in the towel will in certain cases come up big in their last game. While I have heard the argument that this big effort is to sell next years season tickets, it just does not seem to me that this is the case. Most players and coaches are already planning their off season excursions. I do, however believe that in the last home game they want to go out on a winning note,or at least play hard and leave nothing on the court as a matter of self and team pride.

Since 1990 it has been profitable to play on all teams who have been eliminated from the playoffs if they are playing a team who already clinched a spot in the playoffs. This alone puts us right around 56% as far as the spread. If we make these last game homers have a winning percentage of less than .700 we start to move to around 61%. Now we will add some additional filters to make the system draw less plays and have a higher percentage rate. Our home team must come in off an ats loss and our opponent, which is the road team must be off an ats win. Now we are right around 72%. If the line makers make our last game homer a home dog the system cashes at a solid 83%. This is a pretty nice system for those who want to track which non playoff teams will apply. There is one more parameter that can get us to 94%. That one will remain for my eyes only. However I would have no problem playing any team that qualifies in an 83% long term situation. While its understood that past success does not insure future results, I would much rather take my chances with some solid technical approaches. There will be some solid chances to cash in with a system like this in the coming days. Be sure to be there and capitalize.

Rob Vinciletti is a sports wagering consultant who uses cutting edge technical systems like the one above, to consistently guide clients to profits. Be sure to check out Free picks from Rob on a daily basis as he readies for another profitable NBA Playoffs campaign.

RV
 

Rob Vinciletti
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