Below is a free MLB play with analysis for Saturday afternoon:

BRAVES at NATIONALS (+1.5 runline, -120) – 1:05 pm ET #902

Not an official play, but I would rate the Nationals run line as a light lean this afternoon.

Perhaps the Braves have run out of luck after using it all earlier this season. Their offense has deserted them during their current 4-game losing streak. Atlanta has scored just seven runs over that span. They'll face Yunesky Maya for the second time this season. In that game, Maya gave up four runs and five hits in six innings pitched against the Braves. He has yet to pick up a victory this season, but that was his longest outing of the season which may signal he’s on the verge of getting a win. Atlanta is 7-9 against the Nationals this season. They've scored just 14 runs against Washington pitching in the last six games against them. Atlanta is now 34-45 on the road this season and 33-31 against the rest of the N.L. East.

Derek Lowe dominated Washington the last time he faced them, but he's a different pitcher away from home. Lowe is 5-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 15 road outings for the Braves. His last start in Washington resulted in a Nationals win and a short, five inning effort for Lowe. Overall, he's 7-7 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts against the Nationals. A number of hitters smack Lowe around including Adam Kennedy (13-38), Nyjer Morgan (14-25), Alberto Gonzalez (5-11), Ian Desmond (5-11), Wil Nieves (1-3), and Justin Maxwell (2-3). During their current 4-game winning streak, the Nationals have scored 27 runs. Washington is 39-37 at home where they are hitting over .265 as a team. They'll face a Braves bullpen that has 14 losses and 10 blown saves on the road this season. There’s some good value in taking the Nationals on the run line this afternoon.

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