Speed Figures Are Key Derby Handicapping Tool

The 134th Kentucky Derby is difficult to handicap for several reasons ranging from speed figures to varying track surfaces. For instance, a dozen contenders won 14 key preps from February through April. The only two-time winners, Pyro and Colonel John, haven’t posted a triple-digit figure this year.

Pyro ran a dismal 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The son of Pulpit and six other colts finished fifth or worse in their final prep. The last horse to triumph at Churchill Downs after running that poorly or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege, fifth in ‘57.

Colonel John is yet to run on the dirt. Nearly half of the prospective field had one or more preps on synthetic surfaces. So what’s a handicapper to do? One key to success just might lie in the speed figures posted in preps regardless of surfaces.

This year’s speed figures in preps among the expected 20 Kentucky Derby starters appear lower than usual. Big Brown named after UPS ran 106 Beyers in both his preps and is the likely post-time favorite on Saturday. The son of Boundary, among a half-dozen horses with only two preps, likes to win on the front end. He ran the Florida Derby’s 1 1/8 miles in 1:48 on March 31 winning by five lengths at Gulfstream Park.

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