With the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday lets take a look at my top 7 contenders in random order. These are my odds. The official odds and PP's will be determined on Wed.
I have picked the winner in three of the past four Kentucky Derby's and 10 of 17 in Triple Crown Races. Two years ago, most Horse experts thought Big Brown would flop as the favorite in the 20th PP. Not me! He ended up winning in a romp. One of these 7 horses will win. Make sure you sign up on Saturday for the big winner.
The betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby just 4 times since 1979 but three since 2000. Most recently was Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (2004), before that it was Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), and than you have to go back all the way to Spectacular Bid in 1979. The favorite has never won the Kentucky Derby two years in a row.
What is the Dosage and why it's important: Dosage is a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in its family.
You may have heard that any horse whose DI is greater than 4.00 cannot win the Kentucky Derby. This figure was selected not by man, but by history because up until 1991, no horse with a higher DI had ever won the race. (Strike the Gold won with a DI of 9.0 only because Alydar was yet to be named to the Chef-de-Race list in the Classic category. After that designation, the DI for Strike the Gold fell to the more realistic figure of 2.6 which more accurately reflected his abilities and those of most offspring of Alydar.)
Real Quiet won in 1998 with a DI over the 4.0 limit, and subsequent Chef-de-Race additions have actually raised his DI even further. Such is the nature of statistics - it won't be accurate 100% of the time.
The 4.0 barrier is still a good historical yardstick for a classic distance race, but is bound to be broken again someday - only because horses don't race against distances, they race against other horses.
Case in point was last year's winner, Mind that Bird. Bird's dosage was over 5 and still won in a major upset. Also, when looking at the best Beyer figure I like to see a Horse with at least one 100 or more on his resume.
I still find it very hard to back and Horse in the Kentucky Derby that has a dosage of 4.00 or higher.
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TBD Paddy O'Prado ML: 15/1 Dosage: 1.20 Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Dale Romans Best Beyer Figure: 93
He finished his juvenile campaign still a maiden, finishing third in the With Anticipation at Saratoga. He finally broke his maiden winning the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 6, then switched to the Polytrack at Keeneland to finish second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
TBD Awesome Act ML: 12/1 Dosage: 3.57 Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Jeremy Noseda Best Beyer Figure: 98
He had 5 starts in England last year before shipping to the US where he finished 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, then returned to England. He shipped back to the US to win the Gotham at Aqueduct for his 2010 debut, followed by a 3rd place finish in the Wood Memorial (G1). Julien Leparoux will be riding and has 7 wins under his belt at Churchill Downs.
#TBD Lookin at Lucky ML: 3/1 Dosage: 3.33 Jockey: Garrett Gomez Trainer: Bob Baffert Best Beyer Figure: 98
An impressive 5 for 6 last year including the Best Pal (G2), Del Mar Futurity (G1), Norfolk (G1), and then the CashCall Futurity (G1) to close out his 2-year-old campaign. His only defeat was a second place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he still won the Eclipse Award for Champion 2-year-old Male. He shipped to Oaklawn Park to win the Rebel (G2) on March 13, earning a career-best 98 Beyer, then finished 3rd in a troubled trip in the Santa Anita Derby on April 3. Would not be shocked to see him go off as the betting favorite. His recent workouts at Churchill make him look like a champion.
#TBD Super Saver ML: 12/1 Dosage: 3.00 Jockey: Calvin Borel Trainer: Todd Pletcher Best Beyer Figure: 98
Super Saver broke his maiden at Belmont on September 11, and then finished 4th in the Champagne Stakes (G1) on October 10. Skipping the Breeders' Cup, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs on November 28. In his 3-year-old debut, he finished 3rd as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 13. He finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 10 at Oaklawn. Jockey, Calvin Borel won this race last year on Mind that Bird in a major upset.
#TBD Sidney's Candy ML: 7/1 Dosage: 1.86 Jockey: Joe Talamo Trainer: John Sadler Best Beyer Figure: 100
By the undefeated Candy Ride (Arg), a champion miler in Argentina. In his only start at 1 1/4 miles, Candy Ride blazed to a track record-setting victory in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar. Sidney's Candy broke his maiden at Del Mar in his second start last year. He won the San Vicente for his 2010 debut then won the San Felipe in his first start longer than 7 furlongs. He won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby for his final prep. (He was my 3 unit selection in that race)
TBD Line of David ML: 25/1 Dossage: 3.00 Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Trainer: John Sadler Best Beyer Figure: 98
Line of David is a lighty raced horse with an upset already this year. Did not break his maiden until his fourth try, a 1 mile event at Santa Anita on February 13. He followed this up with an allowance win also at Santa Anita. He shipped to Oaklawn to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 10 at odds of 17-1 on a true dirt track. The same dirt track at Churchill Downs.
TBD Ice Box ML: 10/1 Dossage: 3.36 Jockey: Jose Lezcano Trainer: Nick Zito Best Beyer Figure: 99
He broke his maiden in October at the Meadowlands, and then followed that up with an allowance win at Gulfstream in January. He made his stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on February 20, finishing 5th beaten 12 lengths, and then came back to win the Florida Derby (G1) on March 20 earning a career-best 99 Beyer. Ice Box gets a significant stamina boost from his dam, turf marathoner Spice Island, who landed the 1 1/2-mile Long Island H. (G2) and Dowager S. on her way to earning $487,376.
Jeff H
Good Luck this Weekend!
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