With the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday lets take a look at my top five contenders in order by post position.

I have picked the winner in three straight Kentucky Derby's and 7 of 9 in Triple Crown Races. One of these 5 horses will win. Make sure you sign up on Saturday for the big winner.

The betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby just 3 times since 1979 but twice since 2000. Most recently was Smarty Jones (2004), before that it was Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), and than you have to go back all the way to Spectacular Bid in 1979.

What is the Dosage and why it's important: Dosage is a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in its family.

You may have heard that any horse whose DI is greater than 4.00 cannot win the Kentucky Derby. This figure was selected not by man, but by history because up until 1991, no horse with a higher DI had ever won the race. (Strike the Gold won with a DI of 9.0 only because Alydar was yet to be named to the Chef-de-Race list in the Classic category. After that designation, the DI for Strike the Gold fell to the more realistic figure of 2.6 which more accurately reflected his abilities and those of most offspring of Alydar.)

Real Quiet won in 1998 with a DI over the 4.0 limit, and subsequent Chef-de-Race additions have actually raised his DI even further. Such is the nature of statistics - it won't be accurate 100% of the time.

The 4.0 barrier is still a good historical yardstick for a classic distance race, but is bound to be broken again someday - only because horses don't race against distances, they race against other horses. Also, when looking at the best Beyer figure I like to see a Horse with at least one 100 or more on his resume.

I still find it very hard to back and Horse in the Kentucky Derby that has a dosage of 4.00 or higher. It has worked well for me in the past. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#5 Eight Belles ML: 20/1 Dosage: 2.20

Eight Belles would have been the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks but the connections are eyeing a bigger prize. This filly is undefeated in 2008, with wins in the the Honeybee and Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn for her last two starts. Only three Fillies have ever won the Kentucky Derby, but this Horse could be special as she does have a 100 Beyer figure on her resume.

#9 Pyro ML: 6/1 Dosage: 3.73

He was Second in the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Easy winner in both the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. Disappointed big time at even money odds in the Blue Grass, never getting in the race and finishing 10th beaten 11 1/2 lengths for his final prep. This poor final prep could inflate the odds for the Steve Asmussen trainee, who has had the advantage of working out with his Horse of the Year stablemate Curlin. He has satisfied the Beyer requirement with his 105 effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and his running style, rallying from off the pace, is favored in the Derby.

#10 Colonel John ML: 4/1 Dosage: 2.11

He is undefeated in his 2 starts as a 3-year old, but his best beyer figure is only 95 which is some cause for concern. You could make the arguemet that he is getting better. Winner of the Real Quiet Stakes and second in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park last year. He won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita then got up late to win the Santa Anita Derby by 1/2 length over Bob Black Jack.

#16 Denis of Cork ML: 20/1 Dosage: 1.80

He is undefeated in 3 lifetime starts. Won a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last year so he is familiar with the track. Won an allowance at the Fair Grounds then went on to win the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Went to the Illinois Derby for his final prep and was a miserable 5th as the heavy favorite, never getting in the race at all. His best Beyer figure is 96 which will cause many people to shy away.

#20 Big Brown ML: 3/1 Dosage: 1.67

Big Brown is also undefeated in 3 lifetime starts. He is the expected favorite after that runaway effort in the Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles where he earned a 106 Beyer. Before that he won a Saratoga maiden special weight last year for his only 2-year-old start. Than won an allowance at Gulfstream. Has good dosage for the Derby, but does he have enough experience and can he overcome the dredaged 20th post? Also, the betting favorite has only won the Kentuckty Derby three times since 1979.

Jeff H

Good Luck this Weekend!
 

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