I enter my 17th as a pro capper this season, and when I started out it was the Big 8, and now the Big 12, which is my specialty conference. Off another 65% ATS in this conference, and a sweep of the bowl games with Big 12 teams last year, I once again look at this conference as a major player in the national title hunt in 2008. Numerous teams may surprise you this season, with some new blood at Nebraska with Bo Pellini back in house as the head man, and Missouri and Kansas coming off monster years that saw them both play excellent post season games, the Big 12 is a premier power football conference. As a Husker fan it was painful, yet refreshing to see KU and MU do well in the absence of my beloved Huskers. There are teams on the rise and others with high expectations. Be sure to look for my preseason reports forthcoming.
As I look ahead to this season, which I will rank the North and South conferences in 2 separate reports in early August, I see many preseason polls, (worth about the paper they are written on), having Oklahoma high as #2, with an average of being the 3rd ranked team in the nation, which means their hated rival, the Texas Longhorns, are already foaming at the mouth for the annual Red River Shootout in the Cotton Bowl, at the Texas State Fair on October 11th. That will be one of the KEY games of the year in college football bar none!
Lets break this team down and see how close to accurate some sportswriters might be, when saying OU will play for a national title this year. As we all know other than Bob Stoops beating Florida State as a 12 point underdog in 2001 for a national title, the Sooners have looked anything but impressive in National Title game losses. Could this year be different?
Returning Talent
Sam Bradford at QB for a freshman was off the charts in 2007. He led the nation in pass efficiency and set a frosh record of 36 TD passes, but his inexperience and leadership issues popped up, especially on the road in 2007. Barring a sophomore year stagger, which does happen with young talented guys, he has plenty of weapons and experience on his own to continue to flourish in Bob Stoops system. His health is of major importance to the success of the Sooners, and he has the best OL in the country to protect him.
They have a solid front four on defense and I doubt anybody runs on them again, they simply are rock solid both in pass rushing and run stopping. They ranked #2 as a unit in 2007 in points allowed. Anchored by Gerald McCoy, first team All Big 12 and All American at DT, DL DeMarcus Granger 2nd team all Big 12, Nic Harris at safety and Ryan Reynolds at LB, this defense, led by all world, soon to be head coach somewhere Brent Venabels, is simply a dominant defense, especially in Norman. They will keep them in tight games, and Texas comes to mind right away!
The offense has a solid line (all 5 starters return), solid and deep running backs, talented ends and Bradford at QB, they will continue to balance a potent attack that can strike from anywhere. Even without RB Allen and WR Patrick whom have gone to the NFL, this offense will not miss a beat. The special teams and kicker are solid as well, with plenty of speed and depth at all skill positions. I will say overall the best offensive and defensive lines on the same team overall in the nation this season, and big games are won in the trenches.
The Schedule
The bottom line is that is no cakewalk in Division I football anymore on any given Saturday. OU was STUNNED by a non bowl bound Colorado team last year in Boulder. They open with 2 patsies although Cincinnati last year was on the rise, but they have to play a good TCU team at home, which is a small blessing getting them at home. The Sooners have a road trip the week before to Washington, so that scheduling favors TCU after a long roadie for the Sooners.
They have some tough games this year folks, in conference, even at home. The big one is Texas in Dallas on October 11th that may determine the Big 12 South and a national title game. Then Mark Magino and his highly ranked Kansas Jayhawks goes against his best buddy Bob Stoops the following week in Norman. Once again the scheduling of this game favors the road team going into Norman.
They get a determined Nebraska team at home, (Pellini was with OU for a year after his first Nebraska departure), and have Texas Tech at home who is going to be a great team this year, and that game falls after a road test the previous week at Texas AM. Once again a road team coming into Norman in a good scheduling spot for a road dog. See a theme developing here folks? The year end clash with in-state rival Oklahoma State, who can and will score points on anyone at home again this year, is a huge game and one that presents a potential loss. They are playing that one in Stillwater and Okie State is always a threat at home against anyone and have been world beaters against OU there in recent years.
Summary
If OU goes untouched in their regular season schedule, God forbid they do not end up against Chase Daniel and his Missouri Tigers in a title game for the Big 12, as OU beat them twice last year, including when they were ranked #1 in the country. Some serious payback for the Tigers would be in store, just a frightening concept for Oklahoma. I cannot stress how good Mizzou will be this year with 7 all american players on their roster, full of returning lettermen and talent everywhere.
At the end of the day, OU is as good as club as anyone in the country, but there are too many landmines along the way in my mind for OU to go undefeated and win a national title. Are they the best team in the Big 12? Chances are they are tied with Missouri and running a very close second to Texas. I do not see Oklahoma playing for a national title in 2008 / 09. A Top Ten ranking at seasons end for sure, but I see 2 losses for Oklahoma this season, and I do not think if they play Missouri in the seasons championship game, that they will win it.
Tony George can be found rigth here at Vegas Top Dogs daily with his selections, backed up by 17 years of ethical sports handicapping and over 40 Top 10 Awards!
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