By Freddy Wills | March 24, 2010 Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 206) The past These two teams met nearly a month ago on February 21st in Denver. The Celtics fell short ATS and SU losing the game by nine points in a 114-105 final. Both teams shot over 51% and the game went over the total. Last season both meetings went under the number with an average of just 185.5 points between the two match ups. The road team won both games last year and the home was 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. Records don’t lie Believe it or not but only two games separate these two franchises in the standings. Naturally the Nuggets play in a more challenging conference than the Celtics, but the Celtics have had to overcome many injuries. The Celtics have started to put things together winning 4 of their last 5. They are coming off a loss @ Utah on Monday night, but should be well rested and ready to go for this game while the Denver Nuggets got beat @ Madison Square Garden by 5 points. The Nuggets will have to go on 0 days rest. The Nuggets are 6-10-1 ATS this year on 0 days rest including 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7. Fatigue is a huge factor this late in the season. This game is important to the Celtics too, on Monday Paul Pierce was quoted saying, “We want to be healthy, we want to be playing well, and that’s where we’re at right now,’’ Pierce said. “I’m feeling pretty good out there, man. The rhythm, the way I’m moving, the way I’m getting off the floor, getting up and down the court. It’s really starting to come together.’’ Denver is just a .500 team away from home where they are 17-17 and really have not been playing their best basketball when they need to be, with 4 losses in their last 6 games. Is home court cashing? The Celtics are 21-12 SU at home, but following them as a bettor you would know that this team is just 10-22-1 ATS at home. Vegas still holds high regard to the Celtics ability to blow teams out especially at home but the fire power from years past with an explosive defense and offense has not been consistent. However, the Celtics will have their chance to prove to gamblers that they are going into the playoffs strong with six games in a row at home. They’ll face five Western Conference opponents and a wrap up game with the Cavs. Who covers? As I mentioned the Nuggets are struggling right now even losing their last game at home where they are an amazing 30-6 SU. They are just 31-34-5 ATS this season and have been inconsistent ATS outside of their play at home as favorites between 5-10.5 points. I would not recommend putting your money on the Celitcs either as they have been one of the worst teams and still are getting maybe too much credit for being home as 4.5 favorites. Despite the Nuggets not playing their best and coming in on 0 days rest I still think they will give it their best. Trends: Denver • Nuggets are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. • Nuggets are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. • Nuggets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games. • Nuggets are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. • Nuggets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Atlantic. • Nuggets are 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog. • Nuggets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. • Nuggets are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. • Nuggets are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. • Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. • Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. • Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Boston • Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. • Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. • Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. • Celtics are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite. • Celtics are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 home games. • Celtics are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 1 days rest. • Celtics are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. • Celtics are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference. • Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
 

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