In order to be a successful bettor in any sport, you must understand that value is all relative to public perception. I find that college basketball emphasizes relative value when betting more than any other sport. There are plenty of times where a team is expected to be very good and the lines are inflated too much by the books because of it. At the same time, there are also plenty of opportunities because the oddsmakers are too low on a team that is bad, but not terrible.

Why does this happen so frequently in college basketball? Before the season starts every conference has predicted rankings based on the media’s perception of where each team will finish. The national top 25 is also all about perception. Perception and reality often turn out to be two completely different things. At the beginning of the season many of the lines are released based on perception, which allows a wise bettor to take advantage of some soft lines.

Let’s take a look at some examples in the early going in the 2010-2011 college basketball season. These are teams that have been a good fade or a good play because of their relative value.

First, we’ll look at a couple teams that are good, but not as good as they were perceived to be:

Virginia Tech- The Hokies were a pretty good team last year, and their star Malcolm Delaney was returning for this season so everyone assumed this team would be very good. Virginia Tech is currently 1-5 ATS in their 6 lined games this year. The Hokies rely far too much on Delaney to do everything, and they have struggled because of it.

Florida- The Gators were ranked #9 in the preseason top 25 despite their lack of a strong season last year. Florida was trounced by Ohio State, and they are just 1-5 ATS so far this year. They have allowed opponents to shoot the ball well, and turnovers have also been a problem. Florida is a talented team, but they were overvalued to start the year.

Now for a couple teams that aren’t that impressive, but they have provided bettors with a solid opportunity because of their relative outperformance versus expectations:

LSU- The Tigers are not a very good team, and I suspect that will start showing up when they play some good teams, but the oddsmakers were definitely too low on this team. LSU is 5-0 ATS this year because of some very impressive defense. Their opponents are shooting just 36.9% from the floor.

Massachusetts- The Minutemen have stayed under the radar this year, but they are 4-0 ATS thus far. The team has four players averaging double figures in points, and they are allowing just 64 points per game. Ten players average double figures in minutes played per game, which helps them finish games strong.

Some bettors simply think about which team is good or bad before making their decision of who to bet on in a given game. This is the wrong way to look at betting on college basketball. You should always consider the relative value of a team versus the perceived value. The bottom line is that college basketball is a sport where value can be found in multiple places if you are paying attention!
 

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