Emotion is a huge factor in the world of sports today. It doesn’t matter if you're playing NFL football, high school basketball or recreation league baseball. How you "get up" for a game has a lot to do with how you will perform.

There are other emotional situations that work on the college gridiron too – one in particular that I discovered while ripping apart this week’s college card. Michigan State is red-hot and on a roll right now. The Spartans are undefeated and enter this week’s home game against Illinois off back-to-back straight up underdog wins over Wisconsin (+2.5 Won 34-24) and Michigan (+4.5 Won 34-17). This week, the Green and White are a touchdown favorite over an Illinois bunch that just pulled off a stunning upset at Penn State. I thought that situation was unique so I decided to plug it in to my high-octane data base. You’re not going to believe what I uncovered. Take a look.

Since 1980, play against any college football conference favorite provided they enter off back-to-back straight up underdog wins.

31-Year Record = 84-50-1 ATS for 62.6 percent!

As you can plainly see, chalk in this specific situation has an extremely difficult time taking care of business coming off those two emotional upset wins. With regards to Michigan State, the Spartans aren’t off two small victories either. MSU just whipped a darn good Badgers team and their most hated rival – the Wolverines in their last battle.

There are a couple of ways we can make this technical situation stronger. If our “play against” favorite is checks in with serious momentum off a blowout win of eight points or more, this system crashes to a woeful 17-41-1 ATS. Big wins have a tendency to inflate a line and that could easily be why chalk in this role has trouble covering the number.

With our 17-41-1 ATS record in hand, this awesome angle bottoms out to a horrendous 9-36-1 ATS provided our “play against” side enters off a conference victory. As you know, conference wins carry significant meaning and, at times, can drain a team both mentally and physically especially if they are upset wins. It should be noted that this specific tightener has lost 16 straight times since 2004!

The Spartans are rolling right now and the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay this touchdown thinking that the Illini couldn’t pull off another upset on the road. That’s exactly what you don’t want to do in this situation. MSU is locked into a serious hangover role and they could be in trouble here especially at this price.

Good luck with Illinois on Saturday.
 

Ben Burns
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