This game has been one of the biggest rivalries in college football over the last few years. As a result, each team brings their best effort into this game and is one thing that must be considered. These emotional rivalry games have a way of leveling the playing field sometimes, even though one team may come into the game with a seemingly significant advantage. With these types of games, I like to look at the series history because the quality of athletes usually stays the same over the years at schools, unless a significant change is brought on, good or bad, by a new coach. First thing I noticed is that the home team has won outright in five of the last six meetings between these two teams. However, Cal has won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams, including a win at Oregon in 2007. Also, the Ducks haven’t had a convincing win over the Bears since 2001, as their 2005 win came in overtime. Another trend I noticed is that this meeting has gone under the total in six of the last eight meetings, including last year’s 26-16 win by the Bears. Next, I looked at the current state of each team heading into this game. California has looked good so far this season, but they really haven’t been tested. Last week’s win at Minnesota was somewhat of a quality win, but they allowed the Golden Gophers to keep the game tied until the 4th quarter. The Bears did suffer a bad injury in that game, as their star receiver, Nyan Boateng, will be out for several weeks with a foot injury. He really opened the offense and was a favorite target of Kevin Riley. Meanwhile, Oregon comes in having played much stiffer competition, with a road game at Boise State and home games against Purdue and Utah. However, the Ducks offense looked absolutely anemic against a Boise State defense that didn’t look particularly impressive last week at Fresno State. They will also severely miss star running game LeGarrette Blount for the rest of the season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has not looked either, completing only 45% of his passes with two interceptions. The close home win by Oregon over Purdue is much more telling to me than the loss at Boise State. The Ducks should have dominated the Boilermakers in that game, as they had all of the motivation of rebounding from the Boise State game, as well as playing their first home game of the season. However, Purdue, not a particularly good team, kept the game close down to the wire. That outcome is very telling about Oregon. Overall I would love to have a reason to take Oregon with the points. However, they have not looked good so far this season, and they have a first year head coach. The Ducks must be able to run the ball in order have success on offense, but California has a very good rush defense, yielding only 62 yards per game on the ground. I expect Oregon’s defense to play very motivated as well though, and the injury to Boateng will severely impact the Cal offense. I feel that this total is inflated based on the misconception that both teams have explosive offenses. However, I expect this game to be fiercely contested and lower scoring than people think. My recommendation is to take a two unit play on the under.
 

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