College Football Betting Preview By John Ryan Utah State at (9) Boise State 3:00 PM ET, December 4, 2010 Bronco Stadium, BOISE ID Boise State favored by 37 1/2 -110 with a 61 1/2 point total Line provided by Pinnacle Sports This is an interesting and extremely difficult game to handicap. The Boise State Broncos (10-1, 6-1 WAC) are coming off one of the worst possible losses any team could endure and their mental make-up will determine if they cover this huge spread. The Utah State Aggies (4-7, 2-5 WAC) are a weak team that simply does not have the talent to compete on the same field as the Broncos. This much we know. Boise State ought to be favored by this much Taking a look at the team stats and respective national rankings clearly shows how superior the Broncos are to the Aggies. The Broncos rank 6th nationally in passing gaining 326.6 yards per game, 24th in rushing gaining 199.9 yards per game, and second in scoring offense at 46.4 points per game. Their defense is second allowing 13.5 points per game and that includes last week’s loss to Nevada where they gave up more than 500 yards and 34 points. The Aggies are in the lower third of nearly all the statistical rankings. Their best asset is running the ball, but that is not enough to compete in this game. They rank 49th in rushing gaining 161.3 yards per game, 85th in passing gaining 191.2 yards per game, and 92nd in scoring offense at 22.7 points per game. Their defense has been torched all season long and rank 92nd allowing 32.3 points per game. So, it is quite evident that Boise is vastly superior on both sides of the ball. The Effects of the Nevada Loss There are so many detrimental and devastating experiences coming out of the overtime loss to Nevada last week, that even a great head coach like Chris Peterson may not be able to overcome. This team was just two wins away from possibly playing the for the National Championship and now face the realization that at best they will be playing in the Humanitarian bowl or perhaps the Fight Hunger Bowl. For the majority of College Football teams the goal of reaching and playing in a bowl game is always a great way to end their seasons. In the case of a national contender like Boise, it is a crushing and embarassing consolation prize. How could Boise State blow a big lead in the 4th quarter Boise was leading by 17 points at the half and were leading 24-14 entering the fourth quarter. Both the offense and defense failed to execute even the simplest of assignments and plays and suddenly the ‘panic virus’ spread to every player on the Boise sideline. Then to top it all off, they give up the tying score with just 13 seconds left. They somehow, with just those 13 seconds left, execute a huge play getting them to the Nevada nine yard line. The top scorer in school history, kicker Kyle Brotzman, is on the field to save the day and he misses. Then in overtime the Broncos offense continued to struggle and appeared stiff and completely out of sync. Still, they get another shot. This time Brotzman lines up a 29 yard field goal and misses that one too. For any team and each respective player on it to recover from this sort of game is monumental. However, they are playing one of the weakest teams in the nation on their home turf. This is why this game is difficult to quantify and get a feel for how it will be played out. This is perhaps the most important lesson. It is important to determine the correct winning side when placing a bet, but it is far more important to know when NOT to make a bet. In my opinion, this is certainly one of those to avoid.
 

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