Betting the NFL Preseason in 2008 BY Jeff Hochman

You will hear people say Don't bet on NFL Preseason Football. Big Mistake! It's actually easier than capping the regular season. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Visit online at www.VegasTOPDogs.com. Jeff has never has a losing NFL Preseason in his 16 years of Handicapping. You will see why if you sign up this Fall.

1) Depth

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two- and three-deep at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first series. A perfect example of that is a team like the Dallas Cowboys, who have an outstanding No. 2 quarterback in Brad Johnson and have a large advantage over a club like New England, which has a steep drop off from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel.

Quarterbacks are key. NFL Preseason wagers, just like those during the Regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have a No. 3 or No. 4 quarterback that has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third- or fourth-string defense.

2) Experience

I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, in that category experience can be a detriment. Most Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, Philadelphia has been running Andy Reid's system for years. They're going to be much sharper than a team that has had a major overhaul. Take the Dolphins for example. They are breaking in a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, and some new assistant coaches. Keying on clubs that have familiarity and continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems, is a big key for betting on the preseason.

3) Motivation

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC's have different agendas when playing August Football and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs.

Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the Fake Games. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan is. Mike Shanahan (Denver) is a bankrolling 6-1 ATS last 7 years in Game #3 of the preseason.

4) Scheduling

The preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some people are a bit banged up then you can expect the teams to nurse the wounded in that second game. Also, one favorite angle for bettors is based on the belief that a team that's entering its second exhibition game against a team playing its first has a tremendous edge because they've gotten a lot of the rust and jitters out

Jeff's NFL Preseason system to consider

If you are looking for a very solid system/angle in the NFL preseason here is one to consider this year. Teams that begin 0-2 over the last seven years are 37-21 (64%) against the spread in their very next game. If the team is at home they are 22-11 ATS. Head Coaches/owners tend to get very nervous when they get off to a bad start, even in the preseason, and they have their team ready for that third game.

Look for more Football articles in the coming weeks. Early Bird Football packages are now on sale.

Good Luck this football season.
 

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