There are essentially two types of sports gamblers who wager on the NFL preseason. There are those bettors who simply can't wait for the start of the NFL regular season and there are those who realize that betting preseason football is entirely different than betting on the regular season. Fortuntely, there are probably more bettors who fall into the first category, which is why the sportsbooks continue to post preseason lines.
Betting preseason games should be viewed much differently than betting on the regular season. The reason is fairly simple. In the regular season, every player and coach wants to win. That isn't the case in the exhibition season.
Coaches:
When it comes to preseason football, the most important factor is the head coach. If he truly wants to win the game, the chances are generally pretty good that he will. Naturally, this is influenced by the opposing coach's desire to win the game, as well.
Over the years certain coaches have emerged as coaches who want to win, while others have shown a tendency to not give much weight to the scoreboard. Making it more difficult for bettors is that coaches can change during their tenure and coaches who want to win one year, can soon fall into the category of coaches who don't particularly care about the preseason.
Coaches who want to win are generally new coaches or those who are hoping to instill a winning attitude in their team. Not all new coaches are concerned with winning, however, so it's up to the bettor to pay close attention to coach's comments during the week and to be able to read between the lines in many cases.
Another instance where a team may have a little more incentive to win is when they are at home after being blown out the week before. Consecutive large setbacks usually don't do much for ticket sales. Again, it's important to read as many newspapers or listen to coach's interviews as possible during the preseason. Knowing that one coach will be trying to win, while his counterpart is more concerned with evaluating third- and fourth-string players is a huge advantage for the bettor.
Here are the pointspread records of incumbent head coaches entering the 2008 season:
Ken Wisenhunt (Arizona) 1-3
Dick Jauron (Buffalo) 12-15-1
John Fox (Carolina) 14-9-1
Lovie Smith (Chicago) 7-8-2
Marvin Lewis (Bengals) 11-9
Romeo Crennel (Browns) 9-3
Wade Phillips (Dallas) 14-11
Mike Shanahan (Denver) 35-28-1
Rod Marinelli (Detroit) 3-5
Mike McCarthy (Packers) 3-5
Gary Kubiak (Houston) 6-2-1
Tony Dungy (Colts) 23-25-2
Jack Del Rio (Jaguars) 13-7
Herman Edwards (Chiefs) 16-13
Brad Childress (Vikings) 5-3
Bill Bellichick (Pats) 31-19-2
Sean Payton (Saints) 4-5
Tom Coughlin (Giants) 26-22-1
Eric Mangini (Jets) 4-4
Lane Kiffin (Oakland) 2-2
Andy Reid (Philadelphia) 17-19
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) 3-2
Norv Turner (Chargers) 17-21-1
Mike Holmgren (Seattle) 33-33-1
Scott Linehan (Rams) 2-6
John Gruden (Tampa Bay) 22-18-2
Jeff Fisher (Titans) 27-22-2
The following coaches are new for the 2008 season: Mike Smith (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (Baltimore), Tony Sparano (Miami), and Jim Zorn (Washington).
Quarterback Rotation
How long each quarterback is going to play is another important factor, although that is largely determined by the coach's desire to win a game. A coach who wants to win is more likely to play his first- or second-string quarterback longer than one who does not. Fortunately, for football bettors, most coaches will announce several days prior to the game what their plans are.
This is important for bettors since some teams have several good quarterbacks, while others don't have any, which will be evident once the regular season begins. Looking at the quarterback depth charts for 2008, it will be hard to top Tampa Bay's third- and fourth-string quarterback duo of Brian Griese and Chris Simms, both who have starting experience. Personally, I would feel a little better about having either of those two with a game on the line than I would about having Indianapolis' Adam Tafralis in there with my money up for grabs.
Betting the NFL preseason isn't always going to be easy, but if you're willing to spend some time digging around on the Internet reading newspapers and coach's intentions, you should be able to come away with a few more winners than losers. And starting the NFL regular season with a surplus to your bankroll is a pretty good feeling.
Click here to view all of Gregg Price's premium picks.
Social Bookmarking
