Home / Articles / Betting Lessons to Be Learned in Bad Sports Cliches and Rankings vs. Odds
Betting Lessons to Be Learned in Bad Sports Cliches and Rankings vs. Odds
By: Joe Duffy
Date: Mar 5, 2013
Send to a friend
One of my pet peeves as a professional gambler is when sportscasters give a score and call a game an “upset” when the favorite covers. Generally it is when an unranked team beats a ranked team.
Click here to view all of Joe Duffy's premium picks.
The announcer, oblivious to home court and home field advantages assumes the ranked team was expected to win.
Similarly, I follow several sportsbook directors via Twitter. An every growing type of comment was uttered by well-respected former Vegas Sportsbook Director Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman), “I’m not a bracketologist but to hear the talk of Georgetown as a potential #1 seed is laughable. They’d be dogs to at least 15 teams.”
I saw very similar comments in reference to Gonzaga being No. 1. It is all irrelevant. Rankings and seedings are based on past performance. Point spreads are based on future projections.
The financial markets disclaimer of, “Past performance may not be indicative of future results” certainly explains the differences between seeding/rankings and point spreads.
Harangues about pet peeves aside, there are gambling lessons to be learned. One of our Golden Rules we’ve stated on our sports betting podcast is to use the oddsmakers knowledge against them.
When an oddsmaker is making an emphatic statement—the kind that squares may think are counterintuitive—gravy train what they are saying.
A good example would be the better looking sisters of the “Bet on unranked favorites to ranked teams” age-old adage. Much like the NBA zig-zag, blindly betting it is not wise. But there is a modified version.
All of our angles are weighted. The “louder” or the more seemingly contrary the statement is, the stronger we assess it. For example, an unranked team that is a one-point favorite to the No. 23 squad is barely a blip on our radar.
But if such team is laying three-points to a Top 10 squad, that is an example of where we use an oddsmakers knowledge against them and bet the unranked team to win and cover against the highly ranked squad.
Probably unprecedented, in a four-day period in 2013, four times a Top 12 team was an underdog to an unranked team: Jan. 30 No. 12 Oregon to Stanford, Jan. 31 No. 10 Butler to St. Louis, and Feb. 2 No. 6 Syracuse to Pittsburgh and the same day No. 12 Oregon to Stanford. All four times the unranked favorites covered.
When teams have elongated winning streaks and are posted as underdogs, again we almost always bet the favorite. Two of our biggest bowl picks in 2012-13 were Florida State over Northern Illinois and Alabama over Notre Dame (our Game of the Year). Why? NIU and Notre Dame entered the postseason with the longest winning streaks in the country. Both were substantial underdogs.
In both cases, the winning streaks were snapped in blowout routs in which the favorite covered.
In summation: put a checkmark in the column of betting on unranked favorites to ranked teams, but most importantly weighing much more heavily the larger the point spread and/or the higher ranked the underdog is.
Other examples are betting on favorites in long losing streaks or betting against underdogs that are in large winning streaks. How large is “large?” Again, the bigger the favorite and/or the longer the winning streak, the more heavily we consider.
The next time the sports radio update guy calls a game an “upset” when it’s not, laugh at him—all the way to the bank.
Written by Joe Duffy of VegasTopDogs.com
Paul WYNNS RUN LINE MLB GAME OF THE YEAR TONIGHT!
Rob DESTROYED MLB AGAIN and FINISHED 2012 #1 .2013 is off to a FAST START as ROB Continues to CASH IN NBA and MLB USING THE MOST CUTTING EDGE MATERIAL in the INDUSTRY. SPECIAL MLB SEASONAL RATE UP THIS WEEK ONLY!
Big Winning Sweep on Sunday and we keep it going on Monday with Craig's 5 star MLB EASY MONEY Monday Winner!
Gets 7 Days of Doc’s Sports picks for $225 (1 Week). We are 38-12 with our overall plays, 11-3-4 in the NHL, 19-9 in the NBA, & 23-9 in MLB! 10-2 Run on 10* MLB Selection on Monday and a strong NHL on NBCSN Pick!
Rocketman Sports has a 4* MLB play for Wednesday! 15 out of 16 overall winning years in my history! 67-52 last 119 NHL! 37-31 55% in CBB this year!
Dave is a RED HOT 12-4 his L16 NBA picks. NBA Rest of Season Pass now just $149.95. His 7* 32-9 MLB *HEAVY HITTER* goes Monday!
The overall leader boards show no capper is better than Bill Obrien when it comes to ROI. While other cappers will give you tons of volume Bill gives high quality, low volume to put$$$ back in your pocket!
HUGE NBA AND COLLEGE HOOPS RUN! That's been my calling card. I had my strongest season this past season cashing 62 percent.
Ray is riding a MLB O/U Plays (+1223) 26-13 67% Run. STELLAR Basketball Plays (+638) 17-10 63% Run. Plus He's on a on a BIG (+697) 25-18 58% overall plays roll. Poised to keep the streak going! Pad that bankroll!
Steve Merril remains SMOKIN' HOT in All-Sports! MLB 2-0 SWEEP on Sunday! Now 67% (30-15) MLB L45 plays and 42-17 (71%) L59 MLB sides! Steve's NBA is on a 26-14 (65%) run!
Frank Jordan is offering a pair of winning picks on a couple of road teams on this grey Monday. Be a winner!!
61% Winners in my last 157 plays overall! Poor past couple days. Tuesday's card is up and there are three big plays. Tuesday Triple Play ENTIRE Card value is the best value on the board!
I have over 25 top 25 rankings in the four major sports documented. Top-rated 10 unit gems are 81-47 L128, 98-56 L154, and 152-77 last 229 all sports combined. Started in 1998. Jump on board today!
Currently on a 15-4 MLB run! Put your opinion aside for a couple hours and let Higgs Bury the Man for you!
13-1 still not too shabby. get Mike's Tuesday MLB up soon! Sign up for a week with a proven commodity & methodically move up the field!
7-2 MLB 10 STARS 10-3 NBA 10 STARS...watch for these plays when they are offered!
Jim Feist is the recognized leader in the sports information and sports gaming industry. For more than 30 years his acclaim has become unparalleled, with numerous wins in prestigious handicapping contests
Yes, it is the same Joe Duffy (JD of the ACC) who made you a fortune with underdog and small favorite MLB winners on the scorephones since the 1980s. The same formula still wins here at VegasTopDogs.
Get red hot CHASE DIAMOND MLB PASS THIS WEEK ONLY 599.99 HE'S CASHING 31-11 74% ON HIS LAST 42 MLB PICKS!
Start your week off with 2 HUGE MLB WINNERS. I released my MLB 8-2 GRAND SLAM & the 6-1 HIGH ROLLER games for you. Go 2-0 today. Just follow me.
TOP 10 CAPPER IN 2013! Vernon Croy is one of the Top Handicappers in the World since 1999! He has had Countless 10-0 Runs in All Sports! Get a long term all access package today!
The Documented Las Vegas Handicapping Champ is coming off Monday's MLB WIN with Arizona and is 22-9 L-31 with his Vegas Insiders releases and has the Winner IN NBA between Grizzlies/Spurs as Well Get them BOTH NOW!
Victor Chandler is ready to unload again as he looks to be #1 with the NBA and BASEBALL. Victor's Season Special package deals are here.. Check out the true Vegas insider Champion and his action today.
Ben Burns has been on fire with his top 10* selections. If you're looking for a consistent winner, you owe it yourself to check out Ben Burns today! Get onboard a monthly deal today.
Jimmy is on a 17-7 (71%) all sports run including a 10-2 (83%) run on his L12 NBA playoffs picks. Don't miss Monday's 4-For-1 MLB Grand Slam including a NEVER LOST Main Event!
MLB is back and Mike's geared up to make another run this Summer. MLB is one of the hardest sports to turn a profit in and Mr Black has done it 2 of the last 3 years. Get in on Mike's MLB Season Pass, it's GOLD.
NATIONS TOP CAPPER OVERALL and on FIRE! - Mike has huge winners on tap for today and he is ready to score big in THE NBA PLAYOFFS AND BASEBALL ACTION. Mike is hitting over 66% on his TOP PLAYS. Get onboard today
Michael is coming off another full card of WINNERS and has now made his $100 per unit players OVER $12,000 the L90 days! Today Michael continues to SMASH the BOOKS with his Sunday All Sport card! Sign up and WIN!
Monday NL GAME OF THE WEEK CRUSHER! We are #1 in Net Profit the past 5 years by The National Sports Monitor. Gearing up for Weekend Football action