When analyzing college basketball games, people look at common statistics such as shooting percentages, rebounding, turnovers, etc, but there is much more to handicapping basketball than stats. One of the common mistakes that the average bettor makes is to just think in terms of who is going to win or lose a given game, yet their wager is almost always on the point spread. Let’s take a look at how to properly analyze a college basketball game from a point spread perspective.

First, let’s take a look at two examples from this week. One of my premium selections was on Missouri -4 at home against Kansas, just a few days ago. I overvalued the Tigers too much and didn’t think the Jayhawks were as good as they proved to be. However, there was another valuable lesson to be taken from that game. The average bettor would have looked at this game and would have considered if Missouri would win or not since the spread was seemingly low. However, four points is significant. Kansas was leading the game throughout, until late in the 2nd half. Missouri essentially would have needed to take the lead, get a rebound from a last second shot, and then make both free throws in order to cover the spread. However, an even better example of this idea is the Florida/Kentucky game from a few nights ago.

Florida was leading or tied for most of the second half against Kentucky. The flow of the game was back and forth, with the Gators leading more often than the Wildcats. Because of that flow, it became very difficult for the home team to cover the 3.5 point spread, even if they did win outright. The two previous discussed games illustrate a very important fundamental point when handicapping college basketball games.

If considering a favorite of over two points, then that favorite should be controlling the game throughout by close to double digits in order to be a solid selection. There must be some concrete reasons why the favored team will beat their opponent by more than a couple of field goals. It isn’t enough just to say that a four point favorite will automatically cover if they win. Let’s take a look at other point spreads and the flow of the game.

One of the best strategies for me this college hoops season has been taking underdogs of five to ten points. In order for favorites to win by double digits, they must have very strong match-up advantages and possibly some situational advantages as well. However, home court advantage hasn’t been anywhere near as strong this season, so underdogs in the five to ten point range have been able to keep games close down to the wire. Most of them haven’t won outright, but a large percentage of teams have covered the spread. Three conferences that have strongly showed this trend are the ACC, Mountain West, and Pac-10. Routinely teams like Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Maryland, Florida State, UNLV, San Diego State, Washington, and Arizona State have been dominant point spread selections as larger underdogs. Thinking about the flow of a game is critical to selecting point spread winners. Favorites must have some solid advantages in order to cover even the smallest of point spreads. Using the previous stated keys will vastly improve your college basketball handicapping ability.
 

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