One of the best ways to profit from sports betting is to recognize a reversal of a trend before the betting public and sportsbooks recognize it. However, doing that is one of the hardest things to do in handicapping. It is very hard to predict exactly when a team will all of a sudden stop winning or when the oddsmakers will finally catch up to a team’s proper value. Nevertheless, I feel that we may start to see a change in one trend this week in the NFL. The average Joe better has enjoyed great success in the opening month of the NFL, as several big favorites have routinely covered the spread against the worst teams in the NFL. Teams like Kansas City, St. Louis, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Detroit all are at best 1-3 against the spread this season, despite being big underdogs in almost all of their games. These teams have just been awful on both sides of the ball, which has led to even average teams blowing them out with relative ease and covering point spreads. Oakland and St. Louis are virtually unbackable because of their horrible offense and struggling defense. I just can’t trust either offense to put enough points up to cover even the largest of point spreads. However, just how many wins by the public will it take for oddsmakers to adjust enough to the true level of these teams? In my opinion, sportsbooks are finally to starting to catch up to the betting public’s success in betting against the worst team in the NFL. This week Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay are all double digit underdogs, with the Buccaneers and Raiders being over two touchdown dogs! While I still won’t back these teams until they show improvement, I feel that they may start to play better and/or cover these inflated point spreads. However, it will be hard to predict which games they will cover. Why is this? Many of their point spread covers will be from scores that cannot be predicated, such as kick returns and turnovers returned for touchdowns. All it takes is a fluke score or two to give a two touchdown underdog a solid chance to cover in the NFL. Overall I recommend staying away from point spreads involving the worst teams in the NFL, until they have shown some kind of improvement. Right now these teams are bad enough to lose by more than two touchdowns, but it will be hard to tell exactly when these teams, if any, will finally get better this season.
 

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