by T.O. Whenham - 7/7/2010

The Heisman Trophy futures have been posted, and they give us a lot to think about. Anyone who pays attention to the Heisman process knows that the winner very often isn’t being talked about at all right now. That makes it even more fun to speculate and look at the odds that are available. 5Dimes has odds listed for 26 different players. Here’s a look at 10 of the most interesting (and we will offer some predictions of their chances):

Mark Ingram, +380 - Better players than Ingram have failed to repeat as Heisman winner. Quarterbacks will always have an edge over running backs with the Heisman. Last year Ingram benefited from seasons from the major QB contenders that didn’t meet expectations. This year there are a lot of very legitimate QBs in the picture, so betting on Ingram to win again at this price seems like a sucker move to me. I think voters really protect the idea of a double winner, so a player will have to be truly outstanding to be seen as deserving of matching Archie Griffin. Ingram wasn’t an overwhelming winner last year, so I’m not sure that he would get the benefit of the doubt this year if he were in the race.

Terrelle Pryor, +550 - If the Heisman were awarded for stunning athletic talent and potential then Pryor would win hands down. I just don’t believe that he has exhibited the intelligence and desire to win this award. When he looks good he looks really, really good. He has the ability to check out of a game like few others, though, and that makes him very scary to back at this price.

Jake Locker, +800 - Locker is in the running to be the first overall pick in the draft next year. He has had all sorts of bad luck along the way, but he clearly has all the talent in the world, and he finally has a competent coaching staff and some talent around him. The Pac-10 is wide open this year, and he has a schedule to get some early attention - at BYU, at home against Nebraska, and at USC in the first four weeks. I wish this price was higher, but he’s definitely a factor.

Ryan Mallett, +1200 - Mallett also has a shot at being the top pick, and he’s also on a team that could rise up and win their conference. If Arkansas has the season that they could - and especially isf Mallett stars as Arkansas upsets Alabama in week four - then this price will look very good.

Jacory Harris, +1400 - Like the two QBs above him, Harris is a contender if his team lives up to their potential and takes advantage of the opportunities they have. The ACC is wide open, and Miami is poised to have a big year with Harris in the starring role. The second half of his season last year was hurt by injures, but he has had surgery on his thumb, and is reportedly doing well. He has an absolutely massive game at Ohio State on Sept. 11. Either Harris or Pryor will likely see their Heisman campaign end that day. A starring role in a win would be huge for Harris - obviously.

Case Keenum, +1500 - This is a ridiculous price. Keenum is going to throw for a million yards and win lots of games at Houston. So what? Heisman voters hate gimmick offenses, and Houston definitely has a gimmick offense. If you want to bet on him just mail your money to me instead - I’ll appreciate it more than you seem to.

Kellen Moore, +1700 - This, on the other hand, is an appealing non-BCS option. Boise State will start the season in the Top 5, and has a very good chance of staying there all year. If the Broncos were to go undefeated two years in a row, and if Moore were to continue to star like he has - which is likely given that his entire offense returns - then Moore would be hard to ignore. At the very least, he’s in very good position to end up in New York at the ceremony.

Andrew Luck, +1800 - Luck is an interesting case, though this price is too low for my taste. He had a very strong debut season at Stanford last year, and has all kinds of potential. For him to be a factor Stanford would have to win the Pac-10, but it’s not clear who is going to be the power in that conference. My gut says that this is a season too soon for Luck, but he’s on my watch list.

Garrett Gilbert, +3000 - My first reaction was to totally discard Gilbert, but the more I think about it the more I see him as an intriguing longshot. For starters, he got on the national radar with his unfortunate appearance in the BCS Championship Game. He earned at first empathy for his early struggles, and then respect as he started to play better in the second half. He’s on a Texas team that has a real shot at running the table. If the team does win all of their games and Gilbert has a solid year then there could definitely be some momentum to give him the award at least in part because McCoy and Young never won it and the Texas QB dynasty would deserve to be recognized.

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Robert Griffin, +6600 - Griffin was getting some Heisman hype early last year, but an injury derailed that quickly. This year he’s not getting any buzz. A few big, electric performances like he is physically capable of could start to turn that around, though. He’s handicapped by the fact that Baylor isn’t likely to be very good, but he has a chance to shine against TCU, Texas and Oklahoma so he will have the opportunity to be noticed. It’s not likely, but it could happen, and that’s why he’s a longshot.
 

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