Tuesday Morning Coffee November 4, 2008 Ohio State versus Northwestern Saturday High Noon EST I am going to take this moment to talk about the Penn State and their claim that Texas Tech in no way shape or form be ranked above Penn State. AiS shows a 75% probability that Northwestern will lose this game by 11 of fewer points and also has a 41% probability of winning the game. Reinforcing this graded play is a very strong system having hit 26-2 for 93% ATS since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win and when playing on a Saturday. Factoring the entire week into the system instead of just Saturdays produces a 28-5 ATS for 85%. Ohio State’s speed is certainly neutralized when playing on grass fields. OSU is -6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season. Here is a money line system that has gone 39-15 making 28.2 units since 2002. Over the past 3 season it has produced a strong mark of 21-4 making 18.7 units. I like Northwestern and should they win SU it will NOT help Penn State in the polls. For Penn State though fans wait and be patient and your respect will be earned in early January. I have been having another strong College FB season hitting 63% ATS in all premium plays and 4-1 in 10* top rated Monster plays. The NHL is really heating up and just last week I nailed a 7* Monster (3-1 run in 2008) and also hit another pair of 5* Monster dogs that paid +153 and +156 individually and paid $553 dollars for a $100 parlay. Texas Tech is ranked number 2 in the country and has to play a very tough Oklahoma State team at home and then has a BYE the following week. They will then have a visit Oklahoma on November 22nd. My estimate is that Oklahoma will be favored by 7.5 points. They then have Baylor, who pushed Missouri last week (7* Monster Big-12 winner). I do not think they will lose to Baylor, but even if they make it to the Big-12 Championship they will lose having to play on a neutral field. Texas Tech is favored by just 3 points at home this week. Alabama is ranked number 1 in the country and faces a very tough task this week at LSU. Alabama should win and they are installed as a 4 point favorite. Alabama then has two easy games facing Mississippi State and Auburn, but the SEC Championship is a complete toss up right now. Penn State needs only to be ranked number 2 and the probabilities are quite high that they could be number 1. In fact, there is a greater probability that they are ranked number 1 then completely miss out on the title game –as long as the go undefeated. Penn State is not getting any respect simply because the Big-10 is extremely week this season. Take a look at the standings and count how many teams are represented by conference in the top-25. Penn State plays at Iowa this week then Indiana at home and then has a bit of a test at Michigan State. Michigan State has not had a week off yet this season and the fatigue factor is beginning to catch up with them. Just last week they barely got by Wisconsin (Big-10 Conference Game of the Year winner was on Wisconsin). The only “danger” I see for Penn State is just how powerful Florida has become in recent weeks. Florida is destroying teams and they have a clear path to the SEC Title Game and would more than likely face Alabama. The Gators play at Vanderbilt this week, then South Carolina, the Citadel (what?) and then at Florida State. All wins based on my research and then the SEC Title Game will be viewed as the National Title game and the media will proclaim that either team would defeat Penn State. They will also proclaim that either Oklahoma or Texas would defeat Penn State. This is exactly where Joe Pa is most dangerous and if you look at his National Championship years the Nittany Lions were considered dogs. Penn State fans wait and be patient and your respect will be earned in early January.
 

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